I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never work"

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

La Poste in France, are using drones for deliveries...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-Poste-develops-drone-to-deliver-parcels.html

The point here, is it has already started...with todays technology. And the world is not waiting while the FAA is dragging its' feet.
Of course, these are remote areas. What better place to start in.

It does seem like a number of naysayers immediately jump to all the problems inherent with drone delivery in trying to deliver to a person that lives on the 42nd story of a 68 story high rise, in Manhattan. Then they leap to the conclusion...it will never work.

No question it will start on a small scale. But when I read these and other articles, like NASA is beginning to work on a Drone Air Traffic control system, similar to the present air traffic control system, sensors being developed with a sense and avoid technology, redundant safety systems, autonomous computer generated drone flights, etc....one has to wonder where this might lead in 5 or 10 years. Maybe the Manhattan example may not happen, but surely some form will...if all these companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, DHL, and others are pouring monies into making it happen.

I don't know about the whole "naysayers" thing.... Part of problem solving is identifying the problems and coming up with solutions. I can say, representing only myself, that the hurdles that many list - are more likely reasons it won't happen on a large scale anytime soon. I guess just throwing up your hands and saying it will NEVER happen I can see as naysaying - but a lot of people are just debating a pretty large number of hurdles that need to be overcome to make this something meaningfully useful to the common consumer.

Will someone like Amazon, fedex or DHL make it happen on some scale? sure. I actually have very little doubt about that. But it will take solving a LOT of the "naysayers" logistical and technical problems to make it work beyond a very tactical or gimmicky way.

The OP keeps insisting that this service is coming "someday soon" and it will be used all over the place. I think a lot of us are of the mindset that if we can think of a dozen technical and logistical problems that don't have a clear solution right off the top of our heads - we also can sense that finding solutions for those problems will take time.

I agree with you (and a lot of others) that on some small scale it will happen.. and maybe even relatively soon. But there are an S-Ton of logistic and technical hurdles to be solved before businesses start offering this service in a way and at a cost that even comes close to delivery systems already humming along with great efficiency. Not impossible - just not tomorrow.

Actually, I think you and I are pretty close in agreement. I however, did a take on what appeared to be some, as saying it will never happen, as some have used my Manhattan example above, and you did a take on my comments that it might happen tomorrow.

I did make a reference to what it might be like in 5 to 10 years based on what is happening now, in research and development. That was all I was saying. No question, there are many hurdles, and some that may not be solved in our(or my) lifetime. Just saying, the writing is on the wall, for some form of this happening, based on how many major international companies are lining up to do that...research and development.

Got it yep totally agree with all that.

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Here is a way it just might work:
Hello, Mr. Jones. This is amazon air delivery. Can you be ready outside your house tomorrow at 2:00 Pm?
Well, yes no problem.
We will deliver your air package at that time, thank you.
.
Mr jones waits for the package the next day.
.
About the only way I can see it working.......

That's a pretty dumb statement.

Do you need to be standing outside when the FedEx truck comes? :lol:

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Here is a way it just might work:
Hello, Mr. Jones. This is amazon air delivery. Can you be ready outside your house tomorrow at 2:00 Pm?
Well, yes no problem.
We will deliver your air package at that time, thank you.
.
Mr jones waits for the package the next day.
.
About the only way I can see it working.......

That's a pretty dumb statement.

Do you need to be standing outside when the FedEx truck comes? :lol:

No - but if it is something for my Phantom a lot of time I AM waiting outside :lol:

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Here is a way it just might work:
Hello, Mr. Jones. This is amazon air delivery. Can you be ready outside your house tomorrow at 2:00 Pm?
Well, yes no problem.
We will deliver your air package at that time, thank you.
.
Mr jones waits for the package the next day.
.
About the only way I can see it working.......

That's a pretty dumb statement.

Do you need to be standing outside when the FedEx truck comes? :lol:

No - but if it is something for my Phantom a lot of time I AM waiting outside :lol:

HaHa..and if you are not at least at home, you will get one of those little yellow stickies that say you missed our delivery. :roll:

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

I agree with you (and a lot of others) that on some small scale it will happen.. and maybe even relatively soon. But there are an S-Ton of logistic and technical hurdles to be solved before businesses start offering this service in a way and at a cost that even comes close to delivery systems already humming along with great efficiency. Not impossible - just not tomorrow.

You do seem to be taking the all-or-nothing approach to drone delivery. It won't be like that all.

UAVs will gain a foothold by starting out as a premium service, just like Amazon Prime is now. You'll pay a hefty fee to get something small and lightweight delivered to your house or a suitable location where a drone can land. Yes, there are actually people out there who want to order a $900 iPhone and have it delivered within an hour, not wait 2 days for the FedEx truck to bring it. Just wait until the iPhone 8 with 8K display is available for drone delivery and you'll see just how popular that service is.

Logistical hurdles are omnipresent with any new technology paradigm. Drones are no different, and most of those hurdles will be mitigated within 15-20 years. The biggest obstacle right now is on the regulatory side.

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

I agree with you (and a lot of others) that on some small scale it will happen.. and maybe even relatively soon. But there are an S-Ton of logistic and technical hurdles to be solved before businesses start offering this service in a way and at a cost that even comes close to delivery systems already humming along with great efficiency. Not impossible - just not tomorrow.

You do seem to be taking the all-or-nothing approach to drone delivery. It won't be like that all.

UAVs will gain a foothold by starting out as a premium service, just like Amazon Prime is now. You'll pay a hefty fee to get something small and lightweight delivered to your house or a suitable location where a drone can land. Yes, there are actually people out there who want to order a $900 iPhone and have it delivered within an hour, not wait 2 days for the FedEx truck to bring it.

Logistical hurdles are omnipresent with any new technology paradigm. Drones are no different, and most of those hurdles will be mitigated within 15-20 years. The biggest obstacle right now is on the regulatory side.

Sorry Madmitch88 - read my statement again and tell me where I take an all or nothing stance?

I said I think it will happen relatively soon in some very limited way - there's your foothold

I said that I think a lot of the logistical problems can be solved over time (not tomorrow) - so there's your "it can be done" - certainly not a "all or nothing" comment.

so.... where again did I go all or nothing?

 

[MacCool]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

I agree with you (and a lot of others) that on some small scale it will happen.. and maybe even relatively soon. But there are an S-Ton of logistic and technical hurdles to be solved before businesses start offering this service in a way and at a cost that even comes close to delivery systems already humming along with great efficiency. Not impossible - just not tomorrow.

You do seem to be taking the all-or-nothing approach to drone delivery. It won't be like that all.

UAVs will gain a foothold by starting out as a premium service, just like Amazon Prime is now. You'll pay a hefty fee to get something small and lightweight delivered to your house or a suitable location where a drone can land. Yes, there are actually people out there who want to order a $900 iPhone and have it delivered within an hour, not wait 2 days for the FedEx truck to bring it. Just wait until the iPhone 8 with 8K display is available for drone delivery and you'll see just how popular that service is.

Logistical hurdles are omnipresent with any new technology paradigm. Drones are no different, and most of those hurdles will be mitigated within 15-20 years. The biggest obstacle right now is on the regulatory side.

The problem will be that the number of people who can take advantage of a drone delivery service is so limited that the economics of scale won't apply and it will be very expensive. Furthermore, if it can be delivered by drone within an hour, you could likely drive there within half an hour and save yourself a very hefty delivery fee.

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Logistical hurdles are omnipresent with any new technology paradigm. Drones are no different, and most of those hurdles will be mitigated within 15-20 years. The biggest obstacle right now is on the regulatory side.

I will (respectfully) disagree with just these two points. According to my crystal ball, it will happen in 5-10 years, AND, the world is not waiting for FAA regulatory approval.
(OK, I am joking on the first one...)

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

There's actually a far more simple reason why drone delivery will not be profitable. Unruly teens, gang members, idiots, and ne'er do wells will do everything they can to knock them out of the sky and steal the merchandise. And if Amazon employs a drop off hub like Locker then the bad guys will easily learn the route and be on the lookout for deliveries.

Guns, rocks, cheapie drones, and even jamming radio frequencies could all pose a threat to delivery drones. And you can bet that the bad guys will be creative and find more and more ways to knock the deliveries out of the sky.

I get a chuckle when I hear this response. Why do people think it's so easy to knock a drone out of the sky, or that there will not be serious consequences to it?

Most states classify FELONY vandalism as any willful destruction of property over $1,000. Most industrial drones will easily cost that much, and if a drone is upwards of $10,000 then I could see a perpetrator also getting slapped with a 3rd or 4th degree felony for "interference with commerce" as well. These are not trivial criminal charges and upwards of a year in state prison could the reward for some punk who wants to steal an expensive drone.

These commercial drones will of course be equipped with GPS trackers, cellular radios, and cameras so stealing them without somebody seeing your face and knowing your GPS location will be difficult. There will be some lost or stolen but that's why you have commercial property insurance.

Besides, many products could be air dropped from 100 ft. I doubt anyone wants a new $800 iPhone dropped that way, but who cares if a DVD securely packed inside a cardboard box with bubble wrap is dropped onto your lawn? God knows worse stuff is probably happening at the UPS warehouse. Cargo winches could also be a cool idea as demonstrated by this pizza delivery in Russia:

go to 0:55 to see the winch lowering a pizza box to the ground


[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzJ9GjTebUQ[/youtube]

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

The problem will be that the number of people who can take advantage of a drone delivery service is so limited that the economics of scale won't apply and it will be very expensive. Furthermore, if it can be delivered by drone within an hour, you could likely drive there within half an hour and save yourself a very hefty delivery fee.

Well lets see if one might get a little creative here....
A dominos pizza shop has 2 drivers and 2 cars to deliver maybe 50 pizza a night to the nearby large college campus.
Cost of 2 cars...approx $30,000($15,000 each) plus minimum wage for 2 employees per night.

The same dominos pizza with one operator sending out say...5 drones autonomously. He enters to GPS co-ordinates into the computer, loads the pizza and off it goes. Cost of 5 drones, lets say, $25000($5000 each). Plus one operator per night. Now that operator could also send a text message with a pin code to the phone that ordered the pizza, letting them know the pizza is on the way and please go to drop off point. The person on the other end of this phone will send a message back with the pin number when they are in place to accept the delivery. The operator pushes the button to let the wrench lower the pizza, now knowing the correct person is on the ground ready to accept delivery. The student happily returns to studying for final exams, dinner in hand, and not having to make the half hour trip to the pizza store.

Maybe they might even do it with say...3 drones, which now really is more cost effective...this is just one hypothetical example...
(OK I accept the blow back I expect to get from those here that think I have an over active imagination.)

 

[N017RW]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

The problem will be that the number of people who can take advantage of a drone delivery service is so limited that the economics of scale won't apply and it will be very expensive. Furthermore, if it can be delivered by drone within an hour, you could likely drive there within half an hour and save yourself a very hefty delivery fee.

Well lets see if one might get a little creative here....
A dominos pizza shop has 2 drivers and 2 cars to deliver maybe 50 pizza a night to the nearby large college campus.
Cost of 2 cars...approx $30,000($15,000 each) plus minimum wage for 2 employees per night.

The same dominos pizza with one operator sending out say...5 drones autonomously. He enters to GPS co-ordinates into the computer, loads the pizza and off it goes. Cost of 5 drones, lets say, $25000($5000 each). Plus one operator per night. Now that operator could also send a text message with a pin code to the phone that ordered the pizza, letting them know the pizza is on the way and please go to drop off point. The person on the other end of this phone will send a message back with the pin number when they are in place to accept the delivery. The operator pushes the button to let the wrench lower the pizza, now knowing the correct person is on the ground ready to accept delivery. The student happily returns to studying for final exams, dinner in hand, and not having to make the half hour trip to the pizza store.

Maybe they might even do it with say...3 drones, which now really is more cost effective...this is just one hypothetical example...
(OK I accept the blow back I expect to get from those here that think I have an over active imagination.)

Pizza delivery guys use their own vehicles.

Not sure about their compensation details other than tips.

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

The problem will be that the number of people who can take advantage of a drone delivery service is so limited that the economics of scale won't apply and it will be very expensive. Furthermore, if it can be delivered by drone within an hour, you could likely drive there within half an hour and save yourself a very hefty delivery fee.

Well lets see if one might get a little creative here....
A dominos pizza shop has 2 drivers and 2 cars to deliver maybe 50 pizza a night to the nearby large college campus.
Cost of 2 cars...approx $30,000($15,000 each) plus minimum wage for 2 employees per night.

The same dominos pizza with one operator sending out say...5 drones autonomously. He enters to GPS co-ordinates into the computer, loads the pizza and off it goes. Cost of 5 drones, lets say, $25000($5000 each). Plus one operator per night. Now that operator could also send a text message with a pin code to the phone that ordered the pizza, letting them know the pizza is on the way and please go to drop off point. The person on the other end of this phone will send a message back with the pin number when they are in place to accept the delivery. The operator pushes the button to let the wrench lower the pizza, now knowing the correct person is on the ground ready to accept delivery. The student happily returns to studying for final exams, dinner in hand, and not having to make the half hour trip to the pizza store.

Maybe they might even do it with say...3 drones, which now really is more cost effective...this is just one hypothetical example...
(OK I accept the blow back I expect to get from those here that think I have an over active imagination.)

Pizza delivery guys use their own vehicles.

Not sure about their compensation details other than tips.

25 years ago... I delivered pizzas in the summer... one of the cool places that actually had their own delivery vehicles
As a delivery driver it was basically minimum wage plus tips (they couldn't use the waiter scale because deliveries aren't as steady as working the tables)

Nowadays - I'd agree though... most delivery drivers use their own vehicles.

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

OK, lets look at it from another perspective...you are Jeff Bezos...you are paying billions of dollars to 3rd party companies like Fedex or UPS in delivery charges, sure you are billing some of that to customers...why not continue to bill for delivery, but handle lets say, 25% of the actual delivery thru your own drone system which you can control from within, rather than paying it all out to outside companies that also have to make a profit. I bet he is seeing a BIG potential savings in doing this. He would not be doing this if he did not see that there is not a potential profit to be made.

EDIT: I am just addressing the comment that it is not economically feasible. Obviously there are hurdles to overcome, but I am guessing it is VERY economically feasible or he would not be wasting time on this.

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

There's actually a far more simple reason why drone delivery will not be profitable. Unruly teens, gang members, idiots, and ne'er do wells will do everything they can to knock them out of the sky and steal the merchandise. And if Amazon employs a drop off hub like Locker then the bad guys will easily learn the route and be on the lookout for deliveries.

Guns, rocks, cheapie drones, and even jamming radio frequencies could all pose a threat to delivery drones. And you can bet that the bad guys will be creative and find more and more ways to knock the deliveries out of the sky.

I get a chuckle when I hear this response. Why do people think it's so easy to knock a drone out of the sky, or that there will not be serious consequences to it?

Most states classify FELONY vandalism as any willful destruction of property over $1,000. Most industrial drones will easily cost that much, and if a drone is upwards of $10,000 then I could see a perpetrator also getting slapped with a 3rd or 4th degree felony for "interference with commerce" as well. These are not trivial criminal charges and upwards of a year in state prison could the reward for some punk who wants to steal an expensive drone.

These commercial drones will of course be equipped with GPS trackers, cellular radios, and cameras so stealing them without somebody seeing your face and knowing your GPS location will be difficult. There will be some lost or stolen but that's why you have commercial property insurance.

Besides, many products could be air dropped from 100 ft. I doubt anyone wants a new $800 iPhone dropped that way, but who cares if a DVD securely packed inside a cardboard box with bubble wrap is dropped onto your lawn? God knows worse stuff is probably happening at the UPS warehouse. Cargo winches could also be a cool idea as demonstrated by this pizza delivery in Russia:

go to 0:55 to see the winch lowering a pizza box to the ground

I guess you can chuckle - but people look for ways to rob and vandalize all the time - and they do it in places that would be much easier to get caught (gas stations, pizza delivery guys, ups deliveries... etc etc).

I admit - I have been one who said people will shoot them down just for the fun of it.. with my tongue firmly pressed into my cheek... but I think it's silly to assume that because it's a felony, people won't try to knock these down and steal from them in some way shape or form... I mean... dudes just brought down the playstation network and xbox live partially just for the thrill and challenge of it and that caused REAL monetary damages that those guys don't directly benefit from.

If you want people to be open minded to the idea that commercial delivery with drones is within reach... you gotta be open to the idea that the hurdles people are identifying are things that need to be solved. Perhaps the throwing rocks at drones thing is a lower priority hurdle - but it's definitely something someone should be working to solve or mitigate.

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

OK, lets look at it from another perspective...you are Jeff Bezos...you are paying billions of dollars to 3rd party companies like Fedex or UPS in delivery charges, sure you are billing some of that to customers...why not continue to bill for delivery, but handle lets say, 25% of the actual delivery thru your own drone system which you can control from within, rather than paying it all out to outside companies. I bet he is seeing a BIG potential savings in doing this. He would not be doing this if he did not see that there is not a potential profit to be made.

you're totally right... and he might be the right guy to do this. However, I bet he also knows there are all these hurdles to overcome and is a smart enough businessman to realize that these big savings likely won't be happening tomorrow.

I feel like we're all continually confusing the argument between

"It will NEVER happen" and "It's got a lot of hurdles to overcome, so large scale usage is likely years away"

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

OK, lets look at it from another perspective...you are Jeff Bezos...you are paying billions of dollars to 3rd party companies like Fedex or UPS in delivery charges, sure you are billing some of that to customers...why not continue to bill for delivery, but handle lets say, 25% of the actual delivery thru your own drone system which you can control from within, rather than paying it all out to outside companies. I bet he is seeing a BIG potential savings in doing this. He would not be doing this if he did not see that there is not a potential profit to be made.

your totally right... and he might be the right guy to do this. However, I bet he also knows there are all these hurdles to overcome and is a smart enough businessman to realize that these big savings likely won't be happening tomorrow.

I feel like we're all continually confusing the argument between

"It will NEVER happen" and "It's got a lot of hurdles to overcome, so large scale usage is likely years away"

Yes, agree, I guess I was responding to MACCOOL's comment about the economics of scale not being worth it.

 

[Monte55]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

How bout making drones out of pizza stuff....then they could just eat the drone. No return trip. Just a thought.

 

[HailStorm]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

How bout making drones out of pizza stuff....then they could just eat the drone. No return trip. Just a thought.

Sure why not? And for dessert:
http://www.engadget.com/2014/06/16/chocolate-drone/

 

[Hughie]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

go to 0:55 to see the winch lowering a pizza box to the ground
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzJ9GjTebUQ[/youtube]

If I received this I would want to know why is was so cold and would want to send it back. I think they would have some interesting insulation challenges delivering this way. It does not take long for a pizza to go cold. If it is decent insulation they are not going to want to leave that behind with the pizza either.

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

OK, lets look at it from another perspective...you are Jeff Bezos...you are paying billions of dollars to 3rd party companies like Fedex or UPS in delivery charges, sure you are billing some of that to customers...why not continue to bill for delivery, but handle lets say, 25% of the actual delivery thru your own drone system which you can control from within, rather than paying it all out to outside companies that also have to make a profit. I bet he is seeing a BIG potential savings in doing this. He would not be doing this if he did not see that there is not a potential profit to be made.

I read the book "Amazon: The Everything Store" and the author dropped hints that Bezos is already working on developing his own delivery company and giving the boot to FedEx and UPS. Like you said, why make FedEx and UPS billions of dollars in revenue when you can just do it yourself and keep all that cash in-house?

That's why Amazon drones will be happening soon, but probably not in the USA. Bezos is a hard-charging guy who doesn't take "no" or "we'll get back to you" for an answer. He just makes stuff happen.