I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never work"

[IflyinWY]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

I'm thinking we could open a new "TOPIC" titled "Controversy - not really what our forum was created for".

 

[RichWest]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Drones will just need more detect and avoid sensors and autonomous flying like what is being developed at MIT in this video:
http://youtu.be/kYs215TgI7c

That video link will anger a lot of people in here, especially the ones who insist all commercial drones will need to be $50,000+ machines with massively complex collision-avoidance systems in order to be viable.

And yet MIT demonstrated a little foam flyer that can perform very accurate autonomous missions with cheap parts you'd find in a $200 Netbook.

Fascinating video, I am amazed by its flight around the obstacles....Thank you for sharing. However they state that this is a 2D environment only. A 3D space is obviously more difficult, which is 360 degrees in all directions, both vertical and horizontal and in-between. With current technologies, the input alone to travel the 3D space would have to be an exponential number of inputs for the now seemingly simple 2D space.

Further, they state the following.

Because the problem of autonomous plane navigation in confined spaces is so difficult, and because it’s such a new area of research, the MIT team is initially giving its plane a leg up by providing it with an accurate digital map of its environment. That’s something that the helicopters in the AUVSI challenges don’t have: They have to build a map as they go.

The MIT researchers’ next step will be to develop algorithms that can build a map of the plane’s environment on the fly. Roy says that the addition of visual information to the rangefinder’s measurements and the inertial data could make the problem more tractable. “There are definitely significant challenges to be solved,” Bry says. “But I think that it’s certainly possible.”

Further the rules state for the competition: Computational power need not be carried by the air vehicle.

See Competition and Rules: http://www.aerialroboticscompetition.org/

I believe we have some amazing people working on the subject, all the research institutes. I’ve seen some amazing feats of engineering by these people. If it to be solved, these people in research are the teachers of tomorrows answers.

Reading the fine print is required to bring everything into perspective. Computational power is the limiting factor. And yes, AI is loosely used today, just like how the word drone is used. With AI, you'll be able to create an algorithm that can utilize more "senses" at varying degrees; just like we humans do. More hearing than seeing when it's dark outside, as an example. This will reduce the computational demand. But again relies on AI, which is computations or algorithms, to determine when and where these sense's should heighten to reduce the computation overhead. I call it sensory overload when I feel I can't think straight, computers have 1 billionth of our computation powers. Research is looking more at nature to provide these autonomous answers, they are simpler machines that navigate a changing environment. Even swarms, flocks, herds and schools of animals are defining how we move forward on the subject, shared computational power via a system of multiple sensors on multiple devices.

If we are talking in the context of a centralized drop-off point, so many feet in the air, then we can have commercial deliveries starting tomorrow. Which would be good in so many respects and a simpler answer to the autonomous only problems. But that's not the conversation is it?

I by no means am saying it can't be done. The difficulties are great. I enjoy the conversation, everyone has great ideas that should be considered. Keep discussing, so we all may find answers that progresses the subject to a solution....

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

I would be a fool to declare that AI may not play any role, sometime in the future. I just do not see it playing any role in the immediate research and development. Here is another video of a startup company that has developed a detect and avoid in a UAV. In the video the most telling is when it goes thru the trees avoiding both the trees and branches, and another, where it stops short of hitting a tree, backs up and goes around...a UAV like this, could be given an autonomous waypoint, and, as you can see, will go around any obstacles in its path. (NOTE: I realize this is still, just research and development, but it is getting very close to being reality in not to distant future and answering a number of questions of how it might be done, that have been raised here)
http://youtu.be/rYhPDn48-Sg

 

[MacCool]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Drone delivery will be a novelty for years to come.

It's not a novelty if it's already happening in other parts of the world.

Remember, the FAA only controls airspace above U.S. land. There's a big world out there that doesnt give a **** about the FAA's ideology.

Has little to do with the FAA, has little to do with technology. It's a novelty as long as it's not widely used. The point is, it can't be widely used because it's not economically feasible. Novelty.

Technology might some day make it economically feasible to deliver some items by drone to some neighborhoods in some parts of the world. Don't hold your breath waiting for widespread application, however.

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Drone delivery will be a novelty for years to come.

It's not a novelty if it's already happening in other parts of the world.

Remember, the FAA only controls airspace above U.S. land. There's a big world out there that doesnt give a **** about the FAA's ideology.

Has little to do with the FAA, has little to do with technology. It's a novelty as long as it's not widely used. The point is, it can't be widely used because it's not economically feasible. Novelty.

Technology might some day make it economically feasible to deliver some items by drone to some neighborhoods in some parts of the world. Don't hold your breath waiting for widespread application, however.

I for one, am not holding my breath, nor am I ready yet to clear out my driveway in anticipation of it happening anytime soon. But if it were just a "novelty" as you say...there sure seems to me that there are some really BIG players, betting lots of money on this technology and I am positive that would not be happening, if they considered it...just... a "novelty"! People like Jeff Bezos, Google, Facebook, DHL and many other smaller companies are in it for one main reason...to make money. People are investing in, start ups because they see the potential...to make money. If all of these people thought it was...just a "novelty", we probably would not even be having this conversation right now. I maintain (with all due respect)that there are lots of very influential people out there, that would strongly disagree with your assessment, that it is not or will not be economically feasible in some form or another in the near future.

But if you want to argue the point that at the present time, it is just a novelty...or it has yet to prove it is economically feasible in its' present state...OK, I would agree.

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Drones will just need more detect and avoid sensors and autonomous flying like what is being developed at MIT in this video:
http://youtu.be/kYs215TgI7c

That video link will anger a lot of people in here, especially the ones who insist all commercial drones will need to be $50,000+ machines with massively complex collision-avoidance systems in order to be viable.

And yet MIT demonstrated a little foam flyer that can perform very accurate autonomous missions with cheap parts you'd find in a $200 Netbook.

Anger people? Why? I would venture to guess that most people aren't emotionally attached to proving drone deliveries won't work... And most of us think the video is cool... And yes, that technology will help make drone deliveries more possible. I'd also venture to guess that those of us who are saying drone deliveries on a massive scale will take time will be HAPPY to be proven wrong... Yes... I'd use the heck out of that service if it made sense.

But it doesn't mean it's just around the corner.

Question... How long has the google car been driving around without a driver? 2 years? More? So.... I'm going down to the car dealership because they must be everywhere by now.... Because once you prove a concept its a short leap to mass production..../sarcasm

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Question... How long has the google car been driving around without a driver? 2 years? More? So.... I'm going down to the car dealership because they must be everywhere by now.... Because once you prove a concept its a short leap to mass production..../sarcasm

Yes, I did have a chuckle at the sarcasm here...and also yes, I would anticipate it will be years before we see a google car. But what I am seeing is the total concept that google has, is being broken up into bits and pieces and being introduced more slowly in the form of self parking cars, cars that stop themselves automatically if it senses you are about to crash, a number of detect and warnings around the parameter of a car.

I see the google car concept as not only having to deal with regulatory obstacles, but also people perception obstacles, i.e. with everyone being so ingrained with having control of driving a car, are they ready yet, to completely give up and trust a machine. Heck I would maintain there are lots of people right now, that would not buy a self parking car(not willing to trust it). But what I do see is bits and pieces of autonomous driving, being slowly introduced. So I suspect the google car is still years away, but parts of it are finding their way into the market now, in everyday driving.

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

But it doesn't mean it's just around the corner.

Question... How long has the google car been driving around without a driver? 2 years? More? So.... I'm going down to the car dealership because they must be everywhere by now.... Because once you prove a concept its a short leap to mass production..../sarcasm

At the core of your rebuttals, I just don't get your general argument.

You say drone delivery will eventually happen, but then you say "it's not around the corner". Sounds like you're playing both sides of the coin, and you end up looking very ambiguous in making your point.

My general viewpoint is that the technical hurdles for commercial drone delivery will be knocked down quickly --- just like Google self driving cars --- but it's the regulatory side that is the big question mark. Government has always played the primary role of "Big Daddy" in keeping us safe, but they also recognize how much benefit self-driving cars and commercial drones can provide to our society. So the ball will be in their court on when we'll see either commercial drones and self-driving cars in widespread use in the US.

 

[N017RW]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Good analogy, Google Car.

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

And yes, that technology will help make drone deliveries more possible.... Yes... I'd use the heck out of that service if it made sense.

But it doesn't mean it's just around the corner.

Question... How long has the google car been driving around without a driver? 2 years? More? So.... I'm going down to the car dealership because they must be everywhere by now.... Because once you prove a concept its a short leap to mass production..../sarcasm

At the core of your rebuttals, I just don't get your general argument.

You say drone delivery will eventually happen, but then you say "it's not around the corner". Sounds like you're playing both sides of the coin, and you end up looking very ambiguous in making your point.

My general viewpoint is that the technical hurdles for commercial drone delivery will be knocked down quickly --- just like Google self driving cars --- but it's the regulatory side that is the big question mark. Government has always played the primary role of "Big Daddy" in keeping us safe, but they also recognize how much benefit self-driving cars and commercial drones can provide to our society. So the ball will be in their court on when we'll see either commercial drones and self-driving cars in widespread use in the US.

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Has little to do with the FAA, has little to do with technology. It's a novelty as long as it's not widely used. The point is, it can't be widely used because it's not economically feasible. Novelty.

Technology might some day make it economically feasible to deliver some items by drone to some neighborhoods in some parts of the world. Don't hold your breath waiting for widespread application, however.

You're actually quite wrong. There's no novelty about current drone technology. A $1,000 Phantom can already fly autonomously from Point A to Point B all by itself and come back to Point A, as long as it's under 7 or 8 miles total distance traveled. That's what a commercial drone will be required to do, so there's no novelty here. So just ramp up the capabilities a bit and mass produce them and voila --- you got commercial drones.

The FAA will have a LOT to say about how commercial drones will progress in America. My stance has always been that the technical hurdles can be overcome in the next few years, but those old clowns in Congress will be the rate-limiting step.

You're obviously in the camp of "drones are not economically feasible". And yet that video shows MIT made a VERY accurate autonomous drone out of cheap parts and a processor you find in a $200 Netbook. Soyou got a warped sense of what is economically feasible because I see something that looks VERY affordable for any size business, let alone a $150 billion company like Amazon with virtually unlimited budget to make their dreams come true.

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

And another thing( oh no, here he goes again...)
[Climb on soapbox]
Since the Google car seems to keep coming up...
Google does have a very active UAV delivery program in research and development:
http://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...googles-secret-drone-delivery-program/379306/

It sure would not take a very big stretch of the imagination, to say that a lot of the detect and avoid sensor technology they have already developed in their cars, could be transferred to this UAV program...just sayin'
[Climb down off soapbox]

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

But if you want to argue the point that at the present time, it is just a novelty...or it has yet to prove it is economically feasible in its' present state...OK, I would agree.

I'm having a hard time fully understanding the core argument of the naysayers like MacCool and Buckaye?

They call commercial drones a "novelty" and "not economically feasible" and yet sort of say it will happen eventually. Doesnt this sound like somebody trying to play both sides of the coin and sitting on the fence?

I'd appreciate a more concise argument --- such as "Commercial drones will not be in widespread use in the U.S. until the year 2040" or something like that. Otherwise, I'm having a LOT of trouble understanding exactly what points they are trying to make.

We're having good fun in this debate, and it's stimulating the brain muscle while I'm stuck here in Ohio where it's too cold to fly, dammit. Let's keep it going!

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

And another thing( oh no, here he goes again...)
[Climb on soapbox]
Since the Google car seems to keep coming up...
Google does have a very active UAV delivery program in research and development:
http://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...googles-secret-drone-delivery-program/379306/

It sure would not take a very big stretch of the imagination, to say that a lot of the detect and avoid sensor technology they have already developed in their cars, could be transferred to this UAV program...just sayin'
[Climb down off soapbox]

If Google and Amazon are putting a huge amount of resources into developing drone delivery, then you can bet they consider it a LOT more than just a "novelty".

The naysayers have been proven wrong again and again by Jeff Bezos and the Google Guys. I remember hearing in the 90s that nobody can compete with Best Buy and Barnes & Noble when it comes to selling books, CDs & DVDs and Jeffy proved them wrong in a few short years. Many people told Larry and Sergey that nobody can beat Yahoo! or AltaVista in search but they proved them wrong in a few years. They also said YouTube would be crushed under endless lawsuits for showing copyrighted content, but they proved them wrong.

I'm sure if Steve Jobs were alive that he'd be all over commercial drones like white on rice. Too bad Tim Cook is such a lame brain CEO that he can't see the enormous potential in these flyers. He's a clown and won't be leading that company anywhere except into the bowels of mediocrity.

The golden rule of the Digital Age is --- try to prove Jeff Bezos and the Google Guys wrong, and they will end up proving you wrong. You can take that to the bank!

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Yes, it DOES seem there are holes in their logic, to me too...

AND double YES, it is ridiculously cold outside here as well. Been cooped up way too long here, without the ability to fly.
EDIT: Not hearing much from the Florida or West Coast guys, on this(he said, green with envy!)
EDIT 2: OOPS, sorry Buckeye, just noticed you were from Florida(again, he said, green with envy!)

 

[MacCool]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Has little to do with the FAA, has little to do with technology. It's a novelty as long as it's not widely used. The point is, it can't be widely used because it's not economically feasible. Novelty.

Technology might some day make it economically feasible to deliver some items by drone to some neighborhoods in some parts of the world. Don't hold your breath waiting for widespread application, however.

You're actually quite wrong. There's no novelty about current drone technology. A $1,000 Phantom can already fly autonomously from Point A to Point B all by itself and come back to Point A, as long as it's under 7 or 8 miles total distance traveled. That's what a commercial drone will be required to do, so there's no novelty here. So just ramp up the capabilities a bit and mass produce them and voila --- you got commercial drones.

The FAA will have a LOT to say about how commercial drones will progress in America. My stance has always been that the technical hurdles can be overcome in the next few years, but those old clowns in Congress will be the rate-limiting step.

You're obviously in the camp of "drones are not economically feasible". And yet that video shows MIT made a VERY accurate autonomous drone out of cheap parts and a processor you find in a $200 Netbook. Soyou got a warped sense of what is economically feasible because I see something that looks VERY affordable for any size business, let alone a $150 billion company like Amazon with virtually unlimited budget to make their dreams come true.

You're quite correct...I don't believe drones will be economically feasible for years. You're incorrect in that I never said that the technology is a novelty. It isn't. It's actually quite mature. It's just not feasible for economically viable commercial operations. Yet.

Drone delivery certainly can be done from a technology standpoint, and regulatory changes will evolve to accomodate it (or some variation). There are a lot of changes in the business and regulatory environment that will have to happen first. Eventually, it will probably happen. Don't hold your breath.

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Has little to do with the FAA, has little to do with technology. It's a novelty as long as it's not widely used. The point is, it can't be widely used because it's not economically feasible. Novelty.

Technology might some day make it economically feasible to deliver some items by drone to some neighborhoods in some parts of the world. Don't hold your breath waiting for widespread application, however.

You're actually quite wrong. There's no novelty about current drone technology. A $1,000 Phantom can already fly autonomously from Point A to Point B all by itself and come back to Point A, as long as it's under 7 or 8 miles total distance traveled. That's what a commercial drone will be required to do, so there's no novelty here. So just ramp up the capabilities a bit and mass produce them and voila --- you got commercial drones.

The FAA will have a LOT to say about how commercial drones will progress in America. My stance has always been that the technical hurdles can be overcome in the next few years, but those old clowns in Congress will be the rate-limiting step.

You're obviously in the camp of "drones are not economically feasible". And yet that video shows MIT made a VERY accurate autonomous drone out of cheap parts and a processor you find in a $200 Netbook. Soyou got a warped sense of what is economically feasible because I see something that looks VERY affordable for any size business, let alone a $150 billion company like Amazon with virtually unlimited budget to make their dreams come true.

You're quite correct...I don't believe drones will be economically feasible for years. You're incorrect in that I never said that the technology is a novelty. It isn't. It's actually quite mature. It's just not feasible for economically viable commercial operations. Yet.

Drone delivery certainly can be done from a technology standpoint, and regulatory changes will evolve to accomodate it (or some variation). There are a lot of changes in the business and regulatory environment that will have to happen first. Eventually, it will probably happen. Don't hold your breath.

Actually, to me, it is sounding like we may be saying the same or similar thing, But now, it may be coming down to people(like me) that think it will happen sooner, and others more conservative, thinking it may be many years before it is viable. I, for instance would argue with you MadMitch, when you say "Commercial drones will not be in widespread use in the U.S. until the year 2040" (yes I know you were just using that as an example) as I think it will happen MUCH sooner than that(or at least that is what my crystal ball is telling me). :lol: (Other crystal balls, may vary...)

 

[MacCool]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

But if you want to argue the point that at the present time, it is just a novelty...or it has yet to prove it is economically feasible in its' present state...OK, I would agree.

I'm having a hard time fully understanding the core argument of the naysayers like MacCool and Buckaye?

They call commercial drones a "novelty" and "not economically feasible" and yet sort of say it will happen eventually. Doesnt this sound like somebody trying to play both sides of the coin and sitting on the fence?

I'd appreciate a more concise argument --- such as "Commercial drones will not be in widespread use in the U.S. until the year 2040" or something like that. Otherwise, I'm having a LOT of trouble understanding exactly what points they are trying to make.

We're having good fun in this debate, and it's stimulating the brain muscle while I'm stuck here in Ohio where it's too cold to fly, dammit. Let's keep it going!

I don't understand your confusion. It took years for home computers to be economically viable. It used to be the sole province of hobbyists who didn't care about the money, spent what was necessary to indulge their hobby. As the technology progressed and became relatively cheaper due to the economics of scale, computers became commonplace. Let's look at cell phones. The early cell phones were outrageously expensive, and ongoing costs were very high. If I'd have said to you 35 years ago when the first commercial cellular phone service was started that large-scale corporate deployment of cell phones, or computers, wasn't economically viable at that time, would you have disagreed?

So, what has happened in the cell phone industry over the last 35 years, going from cumbersome and outrageously expensive 35 years ago....clearly a novelty.... to the commercially thriving enterprise it is today? Why don't you think that drone delivery services will follow the same trajectory?


ETA: I'm not saying the same time frame, I'm saying same trajectory. I wouldn't predict how long it will be before drone delivery does become economically viable. Too many variables and opportunities for regulatory, economic, or technology breakthroughs to affect that timeline, positively or negatively. Can't predict pther than to opine that the time frame will be measured in years, not months.

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

I don't understand your confusion. It took years for home computers to be economically viable. It used to be the sole province of hobbyists who didn't care about the money, spent what was necessary to indulge their hobby. As the technology progressed and became relatively cheaper due to the economics of scale, computers became commonplace.

Well I guess we have a fundamental disagreement about basic language being used in this thread. You say it took "years for home computers to be economically viable". I say history invalidates your argument. Hobbyists like Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak were assembling computers in 1973 out of ICs and memory chips and putting them inside a wood box. Hardly anybody knew what a computer was in 1974, outside of a handful of academics and NASA engineers. Only a few years later in 1976, they start Apple and produce a popular computer and the desktop PC industry suddenly became "economically viable". A 4 or 5 year time span is very quick development for any large scale penetration of a new product. Most offices and many homes had desktop PCs in them by the late 80s.

Companies like DJI are like the Apple of the 70's. They took a lot of basic technology that have been around for awhile --- such as electric rotors, flight controllers and GPS --- and combined it into an interesting product that the masses accepted very quickly. Things have already moved at a lightning pace for consumer drones, and commercial drones is just taking it to a grander scale but essentially performing the same tasks. The regulatory side is the only rate-limiting step to determine extent of their use.

 

[GoodnNuff]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

I would be a fool to declare that AI may not play any role, sometime in the future. I just do not see it playing any role in the immediate research and development. Here is another video of a startup company that has developed a detect and avoid in a UAV. In the video the most telling is when it goes thru the trees avoiding both the trees and branches, and another, where it stops short of hitting a tree, backs up and goes around...a UAV like this, could be given an autonomous waypoint, and, as you can see, will go around any obstacles in its path. (NOTE: I realize this is still, just research and development, but it is getting very close to being reality in not to distant future and answering a number of questions of how it might be done, that have been raised here)
http://youtu.be/rYhPDn48-Sg

I posted a link to this video a few pages back. Skydio, the company featured, just received a $3 million grant for R&D to refine their obstacle avoidance.