NOAA's solar storm forecasts now show the most affected areas

Suhail78 · Sep 22, 2016

NOAA's solar storm forecasts now show the most affected areas
The new forecast model is a product of two decades of research.

NOAA's solar storm forecasts now show the most affected areas

alokbhargava · Sep 22, 2016

How do we use the info for our safe flights?

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ROD PAINTER · Sep 22, 2016

Wouldn't that make it safer to fly at night?

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Meta4 · Sep 22, 2016

alokbhargava said:
How do we use the info for our safe flights?

You don't.
By the time solar storm activity will have any impact at all on drone flights, you would have plenty more to worry about.

alokbhargava · Sep 22, 2016

Meta4 said:
You don't.
By the time solar storm activity will have any impact at all on drone flights, you would have plenty more to worry about.

That's what I felt

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John Locke · Sep 22, 2016

Is there any evidence solar flares interfere with our craft? I'm unsure.

Meta4 · Sep 22, 2016

John Locke said:
Is there any evidence solar flares interfere with our craft? I'm unsure.

Despite lots of posts about what might happen, no-one has ever reported any (drone flying) trouble that could be attributed to solar flare activity.

Suhail78 · Sep 23, 2016

i just know in my UAV Forcast app, it says if the KP index is greater than 5, its not safe to fly. I think that's directly related to the solar activity isn't it, maybe i'm wrong??

WayneMHK · Sep 28, 2016

Suhail78 said:
i just know in my UAV Forcast app, it says if the KP index is greater than 5, its not safe to fly. I think that's directly related to the solar activity isn't it, maybe i'm wrong??

I've never worried much about it. I usually check the Forecast app before I fly just for wind speeds at altitude. However, I was checking yesterday afternoon before a flight with my P3P and was struck by the fact that the Forecast app registered Not Good To Fly due to high Kp index. In fact, it showed as 6 or higher for me most of the afternoon/evening, and I don't think I've ever seen that. After getting to my location, my bird exhibited some strange behavior that I have not seen before. Sensor errors, erratic flying, wouldn't hold GPS hover, wouldn't fly straight. It was fairly nerve-wracking since I was in a pretty tight spot among trees and needed to do some precision flying. Wind was fairly calm, so I can't say that was an issue.

Now, I've never flown in this location before and there very well could have been other factors involved causing interference, but I thought it was pretty coincidental that my very first erratic flight happened the first time I flew with the Kp index as high as it was. I'm going to have to go back on a low Kp day and see what happens.

jwt873 · Sep 28, 2016

Sun activity has a big influence on high frequency radio communications. As a ham radio operator, I check the solar forecasts pretty well daily whether I fly or not.

I use this chart --> http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif The lower the K index, the less solar activity. I like it in the green.

The space weather for the last couple of days (Sept 27 - 28) has been pretty stormy. The K index has been in the 5 to 6 range. Radio communications were rough this morning, but my Phantom flew just fine. And, I'm sure thousands of other drone pilots have been flying without any problems.

Solar activity can affect GPS satellites, but if it got bad enough to do this, then all GPS systems would be affected and it would definitely be a newsworthy event.

WayneMHK · Sep 29, 2016

jwt873 said:
...it would definitely be a newsworthy event.

Like this? Forecast app has me at Kp 7 most of the morning today. Granted, I haven't been doing this very long, but I've also never seen a Kp index over 6 until the last couple of days.

jwt873 · Sep 29, 2016

WayneMHK said:
Like this? Forecast app has me at Kp 7 most of the morning today. Granted, I haven't been doing this very long, but I've also never seen a Kp index over 6 until the last couple of days.

LOL.. Yea, I read that headline this morning and thought of this thread.

It's mostly sensationalism. These things happen fairly often and if it didn't get published in the general news, the average person wouldn't know about it.

The link below explains the degrees of solar storms, how often they happen and what to expect.

NOAA Space Weather Scales | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

Click on the 'Geomagnetic Storms' tab. You'll see that storms with a Kp of 7 occur about 200 times every 11 years. We're currently experiencing one of those 200 days. (And the forum isn't full of complaints about poor GPS performance).

The last newsworthy storm was in 1989. (The K index was off the scale - exceeding 9) It was newsworthy because it knocked out power grids. Some people sat in the dark because of it.

What we really have to worry about is a storm as strong as the Carrington event that occurred in 1859.

WayneMHK · Sep 29, 2016

That's all good info. I guess I'm just trying to find a reason why my PSP, which has worked without issue in the short time I've had it, went all wonky on me the other day. It wasn't uncontrollable, just wouldn't hold still or fly straight, and in close-quarters it was a little hairy. VPS wasn't affected. Haven't had it out again since, but we'll see what happens when I do. I'll re-calibrate everything again just for the heck of it.