Branding / Marketing issues

[MadMitch88]

The August issue of Popular Science has a great article entitled "25 Reasons to Love Drones...and 5 Reason to Fear Them."

Very interesting, so many applications most of us hobbyists have never imagined. For instance it is predicted that by 2025 about 80% of the commercial drone market will be used in agriculture.

If the FAA rules favorably for commercial drone use, I doubt "80% of the market" will be in agriculture. The majority will be used in delivering goods to homes and businesses. Sure, you can do cheaper crop inspection and spraying with a UAV, but many companies are chompin' at the bit to use drones in delivering items to consumers and other businesses. The possibilities are endless, and it will transform our society.

Personally, I wish drone delivery was happening NOW. Nothing gets my blood pressure spiking more than knowing I have to run to Wal-Mart for some needed items and stand in those long lines while listening to chatty sales clerks waste OUR time because they're on the clock. :twisted:

 

[ProfessorStein]

It seems to me advertising is going to be a pretty large segment of the market, as well (it always is... just look how it's taken over the venerable internet). We all despise the Dronecast guy... but I'm betting we just see more of it. Especially as the tech improves and becomes more reliable.

I can't wait for drone delivery, either, but you gotta figure it's a long ways off. One of the chief problems is current battery life. Figure a drone, loaded with the weight of a product, flying at, at best, 40mph... estimate 20 minutes of flight time with the best batteries out there today (and that's being generous, since the weight of the product could be considerable)... that's 10 minutes one way... which would be, what, about a 7 mile radius max? Do you know how expensive it would be to have warehouses every 7 miles that would stock nearly anything that a customer could ever want to order?

 

[GoodnNuff]

I have no idea what Google's drone program model is like, but Amazon has said that their drone delivery program will only be available in limited urban markets within a 15 mile radius of the distribution centers, and I believe payloads are going to be limited to 8-10 lbs, if I remember correctly.

 

[Meta4]

Drone delivery (if it ever happens) is a very long way off. So far the idea has been great publicity for Amazon and Flirty, the company that Amazon copied their drone delivery stunt from. But there are some very big obstacles that really make the whole concept pie in the sky for now. Hmm .. should I register that name for pizza delivery drones??

The whole distance and weight limitations are serious. To get a multicopter to carry a decent camera and gimbal for any time costs big dollars. To carry 8-10 lbs of cargo, we're talking about a $20K drone. And then the issues of safely navigating a 3 dimensional urban landscape and somehow ensuring that the delivery gets to the right person as well as returning to base aren't quite as impossible as time travel - but they are still a very long way off.

 

[GoodnNuff]

"Demonstrating how innovation can occur rapidly when a company has the will and resources to experiment, Amazon claims to have rapidly prototyped their systems using indoor research labs in Seattle. The company has quickly developed highly-automated aerial vehicles with advanced capabilities and claims to be on the ninth generation of their drone.

The company has tested the full spectrum of their drone’s capabilities including agility, flight duration and redundancy. They also claim to have developed sense-and-avoid sensors and algorithms that will allow the Prime Air drones to see obstacles and automatically avoid collisions. The battery powered drones are a rotor based system capable of flying at 50mph, and can carry a five pound payload — which is sufficient to deliver 86% of the products in Amazon’s inventory."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregorymcne ... ns-drones/

 

[ProfessorStein]

First, that's hogwash for the sake of publicity. Second, Amazon themselves likely did not "rapidly prototype" anything, they contracted out to someone to do it. And that someone still has to build their drones from available parts. If there was a motor out there that could carry a 7 pounds (5# payload plus 2# for the drone itself, under the best of circumstances), 50mph for 15 miles (which would be about a 20 minute flight one way... or FORTY MINUTES round trip!), we'd know about it... and half the guys around here would have them on their Phantoms. The Phantom can just barely lift just over 3 pounds (Phantom+Gimbal+GoPro), can fly at 40mph max, and can only fly for around 20 minutes round trip. You can see how Amazon's "vision" is a ways off.

Don't believe everything you read. 'specially on the interwebs.

 

[Meta4]

There were some pretty disparaging comments on the Forbes article and as the professor explains above, Amazon haven't found a way to break the limitations of physics. So far the whole drone delivery thing has been a great publicity stunt and gone viral beyond the hopes of its originators. The media loves all the sci-fi gee-whizzery of it and very few journalists have worked out that they have been used for free viral advertising.

Here's what's probably the original idea that Amazon copied. It came out a month before Amazon launched their 60 minutes missile, perfectly timed for Cyber Monday and the parallels are too much to be coincidence. Flirty probably went too far suggesting their drone would home in on the customer's mobile phone and also claimed they had obstacle avoidance tech.

http://video.news.com.au/v/137842/Flirt ... smartphone
http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/ ... -students/

 

[GoodnNuff]

I don't believe everything I read.
I fly with people at my AMA field just outside of Seattle who are pilots, engineers, and software geeks who work for Boeing, the FAA, Microsoft and Amazon. And I listen. There are some pretty amazing things happening in our futures.

 

[MadMitch88]

I can't wait for drone delivery, either, but you gotta figure it's a long ways off. One of the chief problems is current battery life. Figure a drone, loaded with the weight of a product, flying at, at best, 40mph... estimate 20 minutes of flight time with the best batteries out there today (and that's being generous, since the weight of the product could be considerable)... that's 10 minutes one way... which would be, what, about a 7 mile radius max? Do you know how expensive it would be to have warehouses every 7 miles that would stock nearly anything that a customer could ever want to order?

You're thinking too much "inside the Amazon bubble". It's not like drone delivery is an all-or-nothing endeavor. Of course it's impossible to build gigantic Amazon warehouses every 7 miles, but I can certainly see large warehouses in large urban centers having access to over 500,000 people in that 7 mile radius. That's where Amazon would likely start drone delivery first, just like they are now doing with their Amazon Locker program.

For smaller scale uses, I think my mention of a drone delivering medications from a local Walgreens or CVS to a patient is one very feasible idea. A small order of prescription meds would fill a small bag that might way less than 2 lbs. and that could easily fit within the parameters of today's UAVs. I could also see a Wal-Mart have a "Drone Takeoff Area" in the rear of the store where customers order small lightweight items on their website and then Wally World drones deliver those items within 2 hours.

 

[ProfessorStein]

Like I said... I agree it's coming, but it's still a long ways off.

 

[MadMitch88]

Drone delivery (if it ever happens) is a very long way off. So far the idea has been great publicity for Amazon and Flirty, the company that Amazon copied their drone delivery stunt from. But there are some very big obstacles that really make the whole concept pie in the sky for now. Hmm .. should I register that name for pizza delivery drones??

The whole distance and weight limitations are serious. To get a multicopter to carry a decent camera and gimbal for any time costs big dollars. To carry 8-10 lbs of cargo, we're talking about a $20K drone. And then the issues of safely navigating a 3 dimensional urban landscape and somehow ensuring that the delivery gets to the right person as well as returning to base aren't quite as impossible as time travel - but they are still a very long way off.

Sorry, but your outlook on drones delivering goods to consumers is very Luddite and narrow. It reminds me of people in the 70's who were saying personal computers would NEVER happen because mainframes cost $10 million and were as big as a house. Trust me, let the economies of scale kick in and drone delivery will start happening within 7-10 years and become very common in 15-20 years. I'd be willing to bet you a nice chunk of cash on that.

"Safely navigating a 3D urban landscape" ?? LOL, you make it sound so overly complex. It's just a drone following an autonomous flight using GPS waypoints. That's happening now.

 

[MadMitch88]

Like I said... I agree it's coming, but it's still a long ways off.

I guess it all depends on one's definition of a "long ways off".

I remember using a clunky Apple IIc computer in 1985 that had a single floppy disk drive, no hard drive, and a 10-inch screen that only displayed green text and very primitive graphics. Fast forward 10 years to 1995 and my Windows system had a fast hard drive, CD-ROM, monitor capable of 16 million colors, and high-speed scanner. I was editing videos on that thing. It was like night and day within those 10 years.

Apply the economy of scale in cheaply producing parts such as batteries, motors, and flight controllers as the rapidly rising popularity of UAVs continues and we'll be seeing delivery drones zipping all over the skies by 2025. Of course, the big question mark in the USA is how the FAA and paranoid legislators feel about it.

 

[GoodnNuff]

Do you think Google buying Titan Aerospace for $60 million last April was just for publicity as well? Titan Aerospace has developed solar powered drones that can stay aloft for years. Google plans on using these jet sized drones as floating internet hubs.
Google is as serious as Amazon when it comes to developing a drone delivery system:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/28/tech/inno ... -delivery/

No, we aren't going to see this in the next year or two, but within 5 years we will see operational test markets for both Amazon and Google, IMO.

 

[MadMitch88]

Do you think Google buying Titan Aerospace for $60 million last April was just for publicity as well? Titan Aerospace has developed solar powered drones that can stay aloft for years. Google plans on using these jet sized drones as floating internet hubs.
Google is as serious as Amazon when it comes to developing a drone delivery system:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/28/tech/inno ... -delivery/

No, we aren't going to see this in the next year or two, but within 5 years we will see operational test markets for both Amazon and Google, IMO.

I agree 100%.

Google and Amazon are both extremely wealthy mega-companies with billions of dollars to spend hiring thousands of programmers and engineers to think up new ideas for the future. No way in hell they would be aggressively pursuing drone delivery if they didnt think there was a huge economic benefit to it in the years to come.

Dammit, I'm sitting here enjoying some KFC tonight and I don't have any hot sauce in the fridge. How nice it would be to log into my local supermarket's website and have a bottle delivered to my driveway within 10 minutes by a friendly drone! :mrgreen:

 

[Meta4]

Sorry, but your outlook on drones delivering goods to consumers is very Luddite and narrow. It reminds me of people in the 70's who were saying personal computers would NEVER happen because mainframes cost $10 million and were as big as a house. Trust me, let the economies of scale kick in and drone delivery will start happening within 7-10 years and become very common in 15-20 years. I'd be willing to bet you a nice chunk of cash on that.

I operated those IBM mainframes in the 70s & 80s and have observed the massive evolution in electronics and watch drone evolution with much interest. I would say 7-10 years off (if it happens then) is a long way off. The advances we'll see in that time will be impressive and (just maybe) enough to get to delivery systems. But if you look at Amazon's 60 minutes stunt, they weren't suggesting it was another 7-10 years away. Amazon implied they could do it with 2013 technology but that was pure marketing bunk.

The limits imposed by current battery technology on weight and endurance are a huge obstacle and we have been working on battery technology as long as we have been developing electronics already without coming close to the breakthrough it would take.

"Safely navigating a 3D urban landscape" ?? LOL, you make it sound so overly complex. It's just a drone following an autonomous flight using GPS waypoints. That's happening now.

I make it sound overly complex because that's exactly what it is. Any dill can program a quad to fly a course in 2D space but it's the introduction of the 3rd dimension that makes it very complicated. How are you going to get a quad to navigate through trees, tall buildings, powerlines etc etc?
I'd call that overly complex.

 

[GoodnNuff]

How are you going to get a quad to navigate trees, buildings, power lines, etc?
http://www.csupomona.edu/~cppsrc/docume ... ummary.pdf
The technology has been developed and is being refined, google it.

My car can parallel park itself, alert me if I drift from my lane, alert if another vehicle or object is too close on the left, the right, or in front of me. It tells me which route to take to avoid traffic. If I'm in cruise control and get too close to the car in front of me, the car adjusts its speed to keep me a safe distance away until I can pass.
Five years ago I would have argued that I'd not see such complex technology in a car for another two decades...

 

[ProfessorStein]

Again, tech isn't the roadblock, it's the powerplant. Battery technology is advancing VERY slowly. Until we have a battery that is lightweight, has long-lasting capacity, suffers no memory or degradation effects, and can get a full charge in minutes instead of hours, we're not going to get anywhere. Yes, Goggles drone is solar-powered... but it also flies above the clouds, where it's always sunny, and rarely lands or takes off... something that delivery drones would have to do constantly.

We need a new battery technology, and it's just not there yet. As I think Mitch said, LiAir is at least 5 years out... and thats the brightest opportunity out there right now.

 

[MadMitch88]

I operated those IBM mainframes in the 70s & 80s and have observed the massive evolution in electronics and watch drone evolution with much interest. I would say 7-10 years off (if it happens then) is a long way off. The advances we'll see in that time will be impressive and (just maybe) enough to get to delivery systems. But if you look at Amazon's 60 minutes stunt, they weren't suggesting it was another 7-10 years away. Amazon implied they could do it with 2013 technology but that was pure marketing bunk.

The limits imposed by current battery technology on weight and endurance are a huge obstacle and we have been working on battery technology as long as we have been developing electronics already without coming close to the breakthrough it would take.

I don't see drones as a "one size fits all or it's nothing" technology when it comes to delivery of goods. Obviously with current battery technology, electric drones won't be delivering 60-inch TVs and 50-lb. bags of dog food anytime soon. However, making short runs of 10-15 miles roundtrip carrying up to 5 lb. payloads is already economical by today's standards and those capabilities improve every year. 10-15 miles roundtrip would cover most large urban areas, and of course many companies would have multiple takeoff/landing areas in a large city to make delivery flights more efficient. Just think of how many Wal-Marts are spread across a big city (one every 3-5 miles) and you see my point.

Even if payloads are kept to under 5-7 lbs, the economic benefits would be huge. Practically any prescription order could be delivered by a pharmacy. Amazon states 86% of all their packages are under 5 lbs, which equates to tens of millions of products that could be air dropped by drone. Other stores like Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Starbucks, grocery stores, etc. could easily justify buying a fleet of drones to gain a competitive edge.

It sounds a little nutty, but even helium dirigibles and nitro-powered multirotors could be viable solutions in certain situations. The main focus is on autonomous aircraft delivering goods quickly and cheaply, not the power source for the aircraft. There is even potential for an entire "autonomous airport system" to flourish in the U.S. Just imagine every small town having it's own airfield strictly for autonomous aircraft departing/arriving with goods. For example, Amazon might have a huge distribution center in Baltimore and large autonomous aircraft could take off from there to deliver bigger payloads to airfields around DC and Philly and then smaller electric drones deliver those items same-day to customers' homes. Such a system would provide a cheap same-day delivery network to a total population of 30 million people without utilizing and straining the more expensive resources of human-piloted aircraft and airports.

Personally, I don't see battery technology as the main roadblock to a future of drone-delivered goods. The biggest hurdle will be on the political and logistical side of things. Will the FAA be the sole master of the skies, or will they relinquish authority to state and local governments for how to handle drones in all these jurisdictions? It could become a huge complicated mess. On the logistics side, how do you manage an airspace where thousands of autonomous drones are zipping back and forth across a large city? I imagine there'd have to be established air corridors like real aircraft follow. You can't have every single drone just flying wherever it wants because collisions would happen with alarming frequency. These are big challenges for the future of commercial drone use.