Brainstorming ideas about Amazon Air (drone delivery)

[johncanfield]

Amazon's shipping costs are about a billion dollars per quarter and they continue to focus ways to lower this expense; drones may or may not be a viable solution but kudos to Bezos for thinking outside of the box.

 

[TimmyG94]

Oh and I just thought of perhaps the biggest hurdle.

Batteries.

Endurance batteries require proper charging, to maintain reliability, not rapid charging. You would need at least 6 batteries per copter, and you would need to let them cool before recharging.

Why aren't you reading my previous posts in this thread ?!?

NITRO ..... NITRO ..... NITRO.

There is absolutely ZERO reason a large retailer like Amazon would be forced to use only electric multirotors for drones. They have all technology at their disposal, and there's no reason they cant use a NITRO-POWERED quad to deliver packages! Nitro quads can travel many miles before needing to be refueled.

Please don't make me repeat NITRO, NITRO, NITRO again.

 

[TimmyG94]

Apart from traffic, theft, weather, endurance, weight, obstacles and other issues with the flight, It means an operator will set and monitor each flight. If they manage to increase the endurance, they still have an issue with the costs/benefits equation, especially the cost of the pilots.

A truck can deliver to, say, 4 destinations in an hour, in an area of say 2 miles by 2 miles, and carry far more than 5 pounds with each delivery. Let's say they average 10 pounds per delivery. That's 40 pounds per hour delivered, in 4 sq mi. A drone would not be able to cover as much area - you would need one drone per square mile. So you would need 4 drones and 4 pilots to cover the same area as 1 truck and 1 driver, and only delivering half the weight.

Cost of the pilots?

Again, you're not using common sense. Why does a drone need a pilot? Ever heard of GPS-guided autonomous flight? Just about every consumer drone at the level of the DJI Phantom is already capable of autonomous flight. These arent $30 million military drones carrying out lethal missile strikes. Just tell a little electric quad to fly to "X" on a map and return home and it will do so all by itself. NO HUMAN PILOT NEEDED.

As for your 2nd point, stop thinking about drone delivery as an "all or nothing" equation! Drones will never beat a FedEx truck when it comes to "pounds delivered per hour". Nobody ever said they were going to put FedEx or UPS out of business. However, in many situations a little drone can deliver a small lightweight item to a customer a hell of a lot faster than a FedEx truck stuck in rush hour gridlock! I've lived in big cities and getting a truck across town is a lot more logistically difficult than sending a little drone across the sky at 300 ft. where there is no other air traffic. It's smooth sailing for that little flyer!

 

[TimmyG94]

It appears to me, that some of the arguments seem to negate that this is viable based on present day technology. But things are changing and improving constantly. Heck it won't be long before we have driverless cars. The idea of a pre-programmed flight with sensors to guide and avoid, (ground station?). My bet is it won't be that long before we all are looking back to todays' technology and laughing at how old it was...
I think Jeff is on to something and wants to be ahead of the curve when the technology catches up...IMHO

Wow. It's very refreshing to read a post from someone who has a solid rational viewpoint about current drone technology and where it's headed in the next few years. I tip my hat to you, sir!

Jeff Bezos was laughed at MANY times in his illustrious career. I read the book about Amazon and this guy was ridiculed in the 90's for attempting to do battle with retail giants like Barnes & Noble and Wal-Mart and others. Who's laughing now, huh? If Bezos has his mind set on drone delivery, he's going to make it happen. Bet your last dollar on that.

I'm getting a little frustrated by people in here who think commercial drone delivery can only work if a highly-trained human pilot is guiding an electric drone that can carry up to 100 lbs. payload. Where are people getting these weird ideas? There's a HUGE market out there for rapid delivery of small items weighing less than 5 lbs. and that's where autonomous drones can fill the niche perfectly. Just the pharmacy industry alone could benefit greatly from having drones deliver prescriptions to elderly people who have trouble with transportation (ie, Grandma cant drive to Rite Aid to pick up her heart medicine).

 

[Scottintexas]

With battery technology today the Amazon delivery doesn't seem doable. Amazon is building a new distribution center in Shirtz, Texas. That is a 3 hour drive from my house. Even a 5lb package can't make that on electricity. Gas powered drones would be even bigger (and louder). I also live just on the outer edge of an airport's airspace. Big problem for the planes and the delivery drone at the same time. Since it is uncontrolled airspace, that is, no tower, it would be impossible to coordinate a drone and a plane at the same time unless the two are talking together (which we do when we fly in and out of there). Then there is the problem of the two huge airspaces just North of me. Hobby airport has a lot of passenger traffic. But the intercontinental airport has a lot more. The two airspaces merge to make a very large airspace. Atlanta, Chicago, New York, and all the major cities in the US have similarly large airspaces. So no drones near them. I'd hate to see news about granny dying in a fiery 757 crash because the plane hit an Amazon drone on arrival. Not to mention the loss of the item the drone was carrying.

The FAA will come up with something, but remember, that something that may give Amazon a waiver will come at the cost of limiting others. So you may find yourself ready to go fly your drone but checking the rules the time slot is only allowed for Amazon, or some stupid thing like that. When I get the weather and the plane at the same time, I want to fly. The FAA does a lot to make things safe for all aircraft. But there are people in all aircraft that can talk to a controller and keep out of each others way. Around Corpus Christi there is a restricted airspace. This airspace is reserved for UAV traffic. The FAA may decide to make whole corridors of restricted airspace for Amazon operations. You can never tell with a government bureaucracy.

My wife and I use the hell out of Amazon. Deliveries are timely as it is. No need for a drone to land in my driveway.

 

[Khudson7]

My wife and I use the hell out of Amazon. Deliveries are timely as it is. No need for a drone to land in my driveway.

Sorry, but had to laugh at that statement

What did you and your wife do before Amazon? I bet you were happy then too...

I bet in 5 years, you will be saying "My wife and I use the hell out of Amazon Drone delivery...and these deliveries are timely as it is...NO need for beam-me -up technologies to deliver my packages." :lol:

 

[GoodnNuff]

Drone Delivery is going to be a reality soon. Mark my words. Payloads less than 5 lbs, and deliveries within 5 miles of fulfillment centers IN LIMITED GEOGRAPHIC (read Urban) AREAS. You will have to be home to accept your delivery. Drone Delivery will be promoted as Same Day Delivery, perhaps even delivery within an hour of ordering.
Drone lockers are not viable and a bit silly. If you want your delivery dropped to some metal box, you can wait for a truck.

 

[Fyod]

So then you guys believe that there'll be drones that can
- fly through cities and out if transmitter line of sight
- fly totally autonomously without human guidance
- fly near airports, because most large cities have one
- fly over crowds, roads, schools

Do you know how much testing and government certification something like that would have to go through?
You argue by giving the example of driverless cars, but that is a technology being worked on for over 30 years and still isn't going into production. As of 2014, the only self-driving vehicles that are commercially available are open-air shuttles for pedestrian zones that operate at 12.5 mph (20 km/h).

All of that hassle, when you can sit on a bike, better yet an ebike and deliver the package much more efficiently?

 

[Khudson7]

So then you guys believe that there'll be drones that can
- fly through cities and out if transmitter line of sight
- fly totally autonomously without human guidance
- fly near airports, because most large cities have one
- fly over crowds, roads, schools

Do you know how much testing and government certification something like that would have to go through?
You argue by giving the example of driverless cars, but that is a technology being worked on for over 30 years and still isn't going into production. As of 2014, the only self-driving vehicles that are commercially available are open-air shuttles for pedestrian zones that operate at 12.5 mph (20 km/h).

All of that hassle, when you can sit on a bike, better yet an ebike and deliver the package much more efficiently?

Yes, Fyod, to all your examples above...

Again you seem to be emphasizing things that can not be done with today's technologies. But it takes foresight like Amazon has, to push technologist to find solutions to those problems, I think. I think of the driverless car as being what Google has done. From all that I have read, it IS ready for prime time, but is caught up now in the regulatory process. That will pass...heck no one would have thought a car could park itself...and yet that is now on the market. I can easily see much of the redundant airplane safety technologies being miniaturized and put into a drones with many extra sensors to make it handle your concerns. Call me an idealist but I think it will happen.

But one could argue that one would get better exercise on a bike

 

[Buckaye]

Ok... I'll admit, I was one of the people who wrote this off early in this thread because of the number of obstacles in the way of it. I do agree that a lot of the technical obstacles can be solved and we will relatively soon see the technology advance to a point where this kind of delivery is possible.

I think the three things that hang me up on how BIG this idea can become are:

1. What does it look like in terms of managing the air traffic... If it's nitro (for example)... It needs to be quieted down quite a bit if it's going to be flying over populated areas.

2. The government. As was mentioned above.. The Google car is being hung up by regulation. If the last two decades are any indication... Our government will take a huge amount of time to come up with the laws to make this work..

3. Cost. Getting this right and consistent will not be cheap... Not saying it can't be done, but I have to think it will be a fairly hefty up charge for this service (at least initially). What Amazon has in its favor currently is that it relys on the logistic systems of FedEx and UPS to help get products to us. Because both of those businesses have huge volume, they can help keep the costs down. Amazon will likey have to front the entire cost of this operation and create the logistical system (unless they partner with fedex or ups..which might work)... That means they will need to pass this cost along to some extent... Again..that's fine... But it will keep usage down at least in the short term.

None of the above is insurmountable... But I see it taking a fair amount of time to jump through those hoops.

I'm a huge fan of technology... So I innately want to see success with something this cool.. But I do think it will take time.

 

[GoodnNuff]

My car parks itself. My car alerts me if there is an object on either side of me, behind me, or too close in front of me. My car adapts its cruise control speed if it comes upon a car ahead of us travelling at a slower speed - my car will slow down and stay a safe distance behind, matching the speed. If I start to stray from my lane without (turn signals) or drift off the road, I get instant alarms. I find this amazing. And all this is in a Ford - not a Tesla!
Within a few years automated taxis will whisk us from airports to our destination.
Yet some find the idea of obstacle avoidance as outrageous as the idea the the world is round or that we may visit the moon one day!

I can already plan an autonomous route via a groundstation that will allow me to avoid trees or buildings and make a 15 minute round trip flight without touching my radio. And yet some think that Amazon's plans will never be realized.

 

[TimmyG94]

My wife and I use the hell out of Amazon. Deliveries are timely as it is. No need for a drone to land in my driveway.

Sorry, but had to laugh at that statement

What did you and your wife do before Amazon? I bet you were happy then too...

I bet in 5 years, you will be saying "My wife and I use the hell out of Amazon Drone delivery...and these deliveries are timely as it is...NO need for beam-me -up technologies to deliver my packages." :lol:

LOL you got the exact same thoughts I have but for some reason people think I'm being unreasonable in my assumptions about the future of commercial drones.

All these people in here doubting the viability of Amazon Air are the exact same people who were saying in the 80's that cell phones would never be possible because they are as big as a briefcase and cost $5.00 per minute to talk on them. These are also the same people in the 70s who said nobody needs a personal computer because mainframes are as big as a house and cost $10 million. Go back to 1900 and many people were saying automobiles would never work because they are noisy, dangerous, and it's too expensive to build roads!

Need I go on? I think I made my point.

Bet against commercial drones ..... and you are on the losing side of that bet.

 

[TimmyG94]

Drone lockers are not viable and a bit silly. If you want your delivery dropped to some metal box, you can wait for a truck.

Can't say I agree with you on that statement.

When I was in DC, Amazon was offering SAME DAY delivery from the local distribution center to the Amazon Lockers inside 7-Eleven stores for a modest price. I had to wait in line to get my item because there was already 6 people in line in front of me.

Needless to say, same day delivery from Amazon is a VERY popular option that gives them a distinct advantage in the online marketplace.

 

[TimmyG94]

My car parks itself. My car alerts me if there is an object on either side of me, behind me, or too close in front of me. My car adapts its cruise control speed if it comes upon a car ahead of us travelling at a slower speed - my car will slow down and stay a safe distance behind, matching the speed. If I start to stray from my lane without (turn signals) or drift off the road, I get instant alarms. I find this amazing. And all this is in a Ford - not a Tesla!
Within a few years automated taxis will whisk us from airports to our destination.
Yet some find the idea of obstacle avoidance as outrageous as the idea the the world is round or that we may visit the moon one day!

I can already plan an autonomous route via a groundstation that will allow me to avoid trees or buildings and make a 15 minute round trip flight without touching my radio. And yet some think that Amazon's plans will never be realized.

+10 to everything you said :mrgreen:

 

[TimmyG94]

2. The government. As was mentioned above.. The Google car is being hung up by regulation. If the last two decades are any indication... Our government will take a huge amount of time to come up with the laws to make this work.

Unfortunately, I agree with you about the sluggish pace of the U.S. government. The American govt. is built on a foundation of FEAR .... which means it will take them at least 10 years to think about self-driving cars and autonomous commercial drones because of all the fear-mongering they have to spread to the public about possible consequences. After all, they are big wise Daddy and we are just stupid little children that need to be lectured to.

I can remember reading about the initial rollout of HDTV in Japan around 1987. I didnt see HDTV sets in the U.S. until around 1998 or so. So it took our govt. over 10 years to finally look at the Japanese model and decide that HDTV was a good thing for Americans. That one example makes me skeptical about the rapid development of commercial drones in the USA.

 

[houstonpilot]

Along that line, I was thinking one cool idea is to have people sign up to be "dropoff stations" for these Amazon Air drones. It's going to be a total nightmare trying to maneuver a large commercial drone into tight spaces like a large city or suburbs. So I think Amazon will probably start developing drop stations where their drones can easily land to deliver items, and then customers will have to drive to these drop stations to pick up their items.

I see where you're going with that line of reasoning, but if there were drop-off stations, why wouldn't it be far more efficient to simply truck the packages from regional distribution centers to the drop-off stations? This would permit multiple items, and larger items, to simultaneously ship out to drop-off locations in various parts of a city.

The advantage of drone delivery as I understand it is to allow delivery within a span of minutes or hours directly to a specific address. I would imagine this would only be for select small items that had "drone delivery" as an upgrade option, and only in municipalities that were within x mile proximity of drone-distribution warehouses. I would also imagine this would be a premium delivery option for which customers would pay a considerable fee.

 

[Khudson7]

TimmyG94, I could not agree with you more...and another thing Amazon has going for it is, they are worldwide...if U.S hangs them up with regulation approval, they can get a head start in some other country. Also read recently the the two largest package delivery companies in both France and Germany are already beginning to use some drone delivery albeit in a limited way. So Amazon could already be falling behind with some international competitors. Of course it will take some time...and...no...I am not clearing my driveway yet in anticipation...but...i think it is more a matter of when, not if.
Regards

 

[Khudson7]

My car parks itself. My car alerts me if there is an object on either side of me, behind me, or too close in front of me. My car adapts its cruise control speed if it comes upon a car ahead of us travelling at a slower speed - my car will slow down and stay a safe distance behind, matching the speed. If I start to stray from my lane without (turn signals) or drift off the road, I get instant alarms. I find this amazing. And all this is in a Ford - not a Tesla!
Within a few years automated taxis will whisk us from airports to our destination.
Yet some find the idea of obstacle avoidance as outrageous as the idea the the world is round or that we may visit the moon one day!

I can already plan an autonomous route via a groundstation that will allow me to avoid trees or buildings and make a 15 minute round trip flight without touching my radio. And yet some think that Amazon's plans will never be realized.

+10...I wish I had your car...sounds nice

 

[HailStorm]

I believe Amazon is starting drone delivery this month in parts of the UK aren't they?

Of course this will be a reality in the U.S. but I highly doubt any portion of their business model is dependent upon neighborhood volunteers "collecting a small fee" for manning drop boxes to ensure the delivery is fulfilled.

 

[russianfront]

Apart from FAA paralysis that plagues civil use in USA, the obstacles are huge and nowhere near manageable with any technology we can yet imagine. Here are just a few problems for them to deal with.
Trees, buildings, terrain, powerlines?
Where does the drone deliver the goods?
How to ensure the customer gets the goods?
How to ensure no detrimental impacts upon humans?
How about dense urban environments, multi-storey buildings?
How about weather - rain and wind?
Battery life? - big multicopters have a lot less endurance than a Phantom.
Distance - how many warehouses would Amazon need per city to give coverage.
How to ensure drones come back and aren't stolen

Where there is a will there is a way. I'm sure Amazon has a team of very smart people thinking about all these challenges and more.