1% rule

[RichWest]

What we have here, failure to communicate.

In Internet culture, the 1% rule is a rule of thumb pertaining to participation in an internet community, stating that only 1% of the users of a website actively create new content, while the other 99% of the participants only lurk.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1%25_rule_ ... et_culture)

Wondering how many people would report a failure versus people that do not... Seems that many would not answer at all even if registered to a community like ours. So do we have a problem with all these flying contraptions...I don't think we'll ever know...

"..." = pausing to think

 

[SteveMann]

I've seen various quotes of drone sales of 100,000 Phantoms in a year and 200,000 drones overall. And we hear of a dozen or so fly-aways here.

Are our small UAV's safe?

Let's assume conservatively that there are 100,000 drones in the US. Let's even be more conservative that on average they all flew one hour in a year. That's 100,000 flight hours by mostly untrained amateur pilots. Yet there is not a single news report of a small UAV crash involving serious injuries to someone not connected to the flight. That is a safety record that any other segment of aviation would be jealous of. You ask any aviation safety expert and they will tell you that in 100,000 flight hours there will be at least one crash with fatalities.

From FlyingMag.com:

General aviation accidents showed a welcome decline in 2013, falling from 1,471 crashes in 2012 to 1,222 in 2013, according to the National Transportation Safety Board.
In fact, by every measure GA flying was safer last year than the year before. The accident rate per 100,000 flight hours dipped to 5.85, continuing a steady historic decline. In all last year, 221 fatal GA crashes killed 387 people. That is the lowest number of people killed in GA accidents since World War II. The general aviation fatal accident rate per 100,000 flight hours of 1.05, meanwhile, was the lowest ever recorded.

I really wish the fear mongers among us stop feeding the trolls with their imagined mayhem. I am not saying it can't happen, but the odds are that it will be many years before we have the first death by drone.

 

[RichWest]

We rate success by the failures encountered. Death will happen one day, but my main thought was rate of failures with current designs. I hear what you're saying regarding fear mongering, but saying there isn't a problem when there is one is just as bad. I know the purpose for most of their mongering....however.

In the industry I reside, 0.1% failure rate creates reports for the cause within a production cycle. Larger %, and the material stops flowing to the end user...until a solution is rendered for existing and future production. More times than not it's a failure for raw materials inspection and/or quality control becoming lax.

Only the manufacture of the systems would know the true percentage of failure for a given user base like ours. We, the forum, only collect data from those that choose to participate... Further, we the "1%" at PP, choose to discern what is a failure, what is a user error or what is BS. We also determine who is credible versus not.... I think the data is skewed in favor of the manufacture and the product's expected life cycle.

 

[Deadmeat]

I think the Phantom is a victim of it`s own success. The fact anyone with absolutely no rc flying experience can be flying after charging your lipo is amazing and i would hazard a guess would not have be affordable to the average man in the street up until recently. The thing is a marvel no doubt. However, you have to remember things can all go south in a heartbeat and you have to be aware of the consequences. That failures only happen to 1% of owners is laughable although my Phantom vendor gave me the same speech after mine dropped out of the sky.The wanker.

 

[RichWest]

So this evening I was trying to figure out how many autos were sold world wide and ran across some data from 2011. 55 millions autos were sold world wide from about 10 manufactures in that year.

Going back to the original post:

In Internet culture, the 1% rule is a rule of thumb pertaining to participation in an internet community, stating that only 1% of the users of a website actively create new content, while the other 99% of the participants only lurk.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1%25_rule_ ... et_culture)

Using the 1% rule above, I'll assume that our membership represents 1% of the users worldwide.

So I did some calculation for the Phantom series (3 year run of product) sales based on membership here at PP. Approx. 23K members registered multiplied by 99 equals about 2.27 million units. If you apply the same formula to the Inspire, again based on forum membership, you'd have sold around 792K units sold based on an 8K membership.

Honesty I don't trust these calculations and the assumed numbers. Just seems unreal for numbers. Just using the above Inspire numbers for units, in market for 5-1/2 months approx. = 165 straight days, they would have to produced 4500 units per a day.

I guess what I'm trying to get at is what are the true numbers for units sold. What number does our membership represent in actual Phantom sales. I could imagine it being 50% (46K) or maybe even 25% (92K) units sold. If either is the case, any issues that arise are representative of our number by a factor of 2 or even 4.

Just thinking out loud and sorry I do not buy the DJI or VC marketing BS provided to the media. The example of production volume was represented in the recovered images and videos from the Inspire's factory floor shots. To me their setup represented about 100-200 units a day production.

Curious what others believe. It really doesn't matter one way or another to me, other than the exercise for pondering the numbers. Can't measure if you don't have numbers, so I made some up.

 

[IflyinWY]

So this evening I was...
Curious what others believe. It really doesn't matter one way or another to me, other than the exercise for pondering the numbers. Can't measure if you don't have numbers, so I made some up.

I find it funny, in a weird sort of way, that not one time has anyone mentioned the fact, Yes I called it "FACT", many of our members have come here for a solution to their problem.

Most folks don't walk away from their televisions to find a forum and post how wonderful their life is because they have discovered the Phantom. They come here for help which equates to some type of problem. Most of the time it's "Operator Error" or just plain ignorance.

Thanks for another great thread RichWest. I think the numbers are greater than we want, but no where near what one would believe by viewing our posts.

FYI,
I've beat the living daylights out of my FC40, some of which is available for your entertainment on YouTube. It may not fly like it did on day one, but it does keep on going, and going, and going, and ...

 

[dirkclod]

Can't measure if you don't have numbers, so I made some up.

 

[claws]

I think the Phantom is a victim of it`s own success. The fact anyone with absolutely no rc flying experience can be flying after charging your lipo is amazing

That goes for cars and motorbikes too though and RC planes. In some countries, even guns.

 

[gunslinger]

I find it funny, in a weird sort of way, that not one time has anyone mentioned the fact, Yes I called it "FACT", many of our members have come here for a solution to their problem.

Most folks don't walk away from their televisions to find a forum and post how wonderful their life is because they have discovered the Phantom. They come here for help which equates to some type of problem. Most of the time it's "Operator Error" or just plain ignorance.

Thanks for another great thread RichWest. I think the numbers are greater than we want, but no where near what one would believe by viewing our posts.

FYI,
I've beat the living daylights out of my FC40, some of which is available for your entertainment on YouTube. It may not fly like it did on day one, but it does keep on going, and going, and going, and ...

I couldn't agree more WY. I almost lost my P2V on its third flight. Through my ignorance and noobness... I think that's the cause of a very high percentage of the "flyaway" issue. I believe there have been serious issues that may have caused flyaways... But that appears to be a very low percentage...

-slinger

 

[kirk2579]

That goes for cars and motorbikes too though and RC planes. In some countries, even guns.

yep have some freedom still , its great

and its them those guns that are going to make sure it stays that way in long run......

 

[dirkclod]

yep have some freedom still , its great

and its them those guns that are going to make sure it stays that way in long run......

Ya **** skippy on that bro !!

 

[gunslinger]

Guns??? ***PERK***

 

[dirkclod]

Guns??? ***PERK***

+1

 

[RedHotPoker]

1%? I thought that was a sign, only meant for them outlaw bikers...

RedHotPoker

 

[dirkclod]

1%? I thought that was a sign, only meant for them outlaw bikers...

RedHotPoker